Why Iran? Why now? The answer is China.

To understand Trump’s motivations we must take a step back and look at the broader strategy.

Trump sees China as the principal threat to America. Not just in terms of its ability to compete with America. But also in terms of its ability to secure natural resources and supply chains for critical infrastructure such as semiconductors and advanced chips for AI etc.

He laments the fact that America has for too long ignored the importance of domestic manufacturing capabilities and access to rare earth minerals as well as oil. Therefore his strategy is to secure resources for America whilst simultaneously denying guaranteed access to China. His vision is to achieve that in the following ways.

 

Number 1. Secure access to the resources he needs in America’s near neighbourhood. That means Greenland for rare earth minerals and Venezuela for oil.

 

Number 2. Take out America’s enemies and China’s allies. Now that the US crude oil supply is secure via Venezuela he is attacking Iran to take out the biggest state sponsor of terrorism on the planet. Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz is raising prices, but it is not the crisis it was in the 1970s. Iran also provides Russia with drones for its fight in Ukraine and a large chunk of China’s oil. Regime change in Tehran enables Trump to apply pressure on Putin to end the Ukraine war and pressure China to back off Taiwan.

 

Number 3. China is totally dependent on imports for food. They have very infertile land for agriculture. That means securing the shipping lanes that supply China creates vast leverage for America. The most important shipping lane pinch points for China are the Suez Canal (Egypt), the Strait of Hormuz (Iran & Saudi), The Panama Canal (Panama) and the Strait of Malacca (Malaysia) as well as India which controls the Indian Ocean, though which everything passes on its way to China.

Trump has spent the first 6 years of his presidency securing these countries as allies. In his first term he signed the Abraham Accords with the Arab nations, which is one of the reasons why Iran is now attacking them. He secured a deal with Panama to regain control of the canal from China. In 2017 he revived the Quad agreement between USA, India, Japan and Australia in order to bind India’s future in with the West and have the ability to cut China off in the Indian ocean and the Pacific if needed.

 

Number 4. For America to actually be safe he needs to bring back critical manufacturing to the US. That requires tariffs and subsidies for relocation. That’s why Taiwan Semiconductors are now setting up shop in Arizona, beyond the reach of China. Trump needs the re-shoring of manufacturing to accelerate dramatically if the US wants to have a secure source of military equipment. Today most of their munitions depend on Chinese supply chains. In Trump’s view that is not sustainable.

 

Number 5. Lower the cost of energy to power the AI and robotics revolution. Until February 2026 Trump had driven down oil prices to real terms record lows and that was enabling the energy needs of the AI revolution. A stable Iran with oil flowing freely into global markets would stabilise oil prices further and help create a sustainable pathway for AI to generate giant leaps in productivity gains.

 

Number 6. America needs a foothold in every continent. In Europe that means the UK & Ireland. In East Asia that means Japan and S Korea. In the Middle East it has only had Israel until very recently. That means when a country says it is going to “obtain a nuclear bomb in order to wipe Israel off the map” then America takes it seriously. Especially when that terrorist state have spent billions funding terrorists who attack Israel, the UK and the USA on a monthly if not weekly basis.

 

So yes there is a humanitarian justification for this war. 32,000 democracy protestors have been killed in 2026 alone. Yes there is plenty of oil in Iran the US would love to gain access to. But the primary purpose of this action is of far greater strategic importance than just the Middle East. This is in some ways an extension of the proxy war already raging in Ukraine. This is a fight between East and West.

If Trump is successful this could herald a new age of peace in the Middle East. If he is not, it could leave the door open for a Chinese move on Taiwan whilst the American war machine is distracted.