Global energy markets are facing one of their most serious supply disruptions in decades as attacks and escalating military tensions threaten several of the Middle East’s most important oil-export routes simultaneously.

The latest shock came from Saudi Arabia, which temporarily shut down its strategically important East-West oil pipelinefollowing a drone attack. The 1,200-kilometre pipeline normally carries roughly 4–5 million barrels of crude oil per dayfrom Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing Riyadh to bypass the heavily disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

The shutdown is particularly significant because the pipeline has become one of Saudi Arabia’s principal alternatives to shipping oil through Hormuz. If the outage continues, Saudi Arabia’s stocks at Yanbu could reportedly sustain exports for only several days before additional logistical constraints become critical.

At the same time, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the strategic maritime passage connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, is facing growing security risks. Houthi forces have intensified activity around the Red Sea and recently seized the strategically located Perim Island, increasing concerns that commercial shipping through the waterway could face further disruption.

The developments come against the backdrop of the continuing crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, through which an enormous share of the world’s oil normally passes. Before the current conflict, roughly 20.9 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum liquids moved through Hormuz—equivalent to around one-fifth of global petroleum consumption.

The war has dramatically reduced traffic through the waterway. Analysts at Brookings have described the disruption as the largest in the history of the oil market, noting that tanker traffic has fallen to extremely low levels and that the disruption has already caused major losses in regional production.

A dangerous combination of chokepoints

What makes the current situation particularly alarming is that the disruptions are occurring across multiple alternative routes at the same time.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was designed precisely to reduce its dependence on Hormuz. But with that pipeline now offline, the country faces a fresh bottleneck at a moment when maritime exports through Hormuz remain severely constrained.

The Bab el-Mandeb route presents another vulnerability. Oil and petroleum products moving between the Middle East, Europe and Asia can use the Red Sea corridor to avoid Hormuz, but growing attacks and threats in the region are making that alternative increasingly difficult to rely upon.

Taken together, the disruptions expose a fundamental weakness in the global energy system: there are alternative routes, but they do not have enough capacity to completely replace the major chokepoints.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi pipeline together provide about 4.7 million barrels per day of capacity for bypassing Hormuz—far below the volumes normally passing through the strait.

Why the numbers matter

Claims that as much as 30 million barrels per day are simultaneously offline or at risk should be treated as a measure of potentially affected flows, rather than 30 million barrels of confirmed lost production. Some of the routes overlap, and oil can be redirected through pipelines, ports, inventories and alternative shipping routes.

Nevertheless, the scale is extraordinary.

The global oil market consumes roughly 100 million barrels per day, meaning that even a fraction of the threatened volumes could produce a major supply shock.

The International Energy Agency has already described the broader disruption caused by the conflict as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

Oil prices have already responded sharply. Brent crude has moved above $100 a barrel, while disruptions have also pushed U.S. diesel prices to record levels.

The global consequences

The consequences extend far beyond the Middle East.

Higher crude prices can quickly translate into more expensive petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, shipping and manufactured goods. Because oil is globally traded, countries that do not import Middle Eastern crude directly can still face higher prices.

The disruption is also threatening to worsen inflation at a time when governments and central banks are already dealing with elevated costs.

Strategic petroleum reserves can provide temporary relief. The IEA has already coordinated an unprecedented 400-million-barrel release of emergency oil stocks, but reserves can only bridge the gap for a limited period if physical supply remains constrained.

The immediate question is therefore not simply whether one pipeline or one shipping route can reopen. It is whether the region can restore several major energy corridors simultaneously.

With Hormuz severely restricted, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline damaged and Red Sea shipping facing increasing threats, the Middle East is experiencing an unusually concentrated energy-security crisis.

For a global oil market of roughly 100 million barrels per day, even a sustained disruption involving a fraction of the threatened volumes could have consequences measured not only in higher fuel prices, but in inflation, economic growth and global trade.