Conspiracies and Realities in Colombia Following the Attack on Leader Miguel Uribe
The attack on Colombian senator and presidential pre-candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, which took place on June 7, 2025, in Bogotá’s Modelia neighborhood, has shaken Colombia, reviving dark memories of the political violence of the 1980s and 1990s.
This criminal act, perpetrated by a teenager, has sparked a whirlwind of contradictory information, speculation about beneficiaries, and profound reflections on the future of the 2026 presidential elections and Colombian democracy.
Below, we analyze the details of the attack, the conflicting narratives, the potential beneficiaries, and the long-term implications.
The Attack: Context and Details
Miguel Uribe Turbay, a 39-year-old senator from the Centro Democrático party and one of the right-wing presidential pre-candidates, was seriously injured during a campaign event. According to reports, a young hitman shot him in the back, striking him in the head and left thigh. He was rushed to the Fundación Santa Fe, where, after two complex surgeries, he remains in critical condition with a reserved prognosis. The minor was apprehended at the scene, carrying a 9mm Glock pistol, allegedly purchased in Arizona, according to the Colombian Police.
The Attorney General’s Office and the Ministry of Defense are investigating, with three main hypotheses: a targeted attack on Uribe due to his political profile, an assault on his party, or an attempt to destabilize Gustavo Petro’s government.
The event has rekindled traumatic memories of political violence in Colombia, particularly from the 1989-1990 presidential campaign, when three candidates (Luis Carlos Galán, Bernardo Jaramillo, and Carlos Pizarro) were assassinated.
Uribe’s mother, journalist Diana Turbay, was also a victim of that era, kidnapped by the Medellín Cartel in 1990 and killed during a rescue attempt in 1991.
This personal and political background has amplified the impact of the attack.
The attack on Miguel Uribe intensifies political polarization in Colombia, with each sector interpreting the facts according to its own narrative. The lack of clarity fuels conspiracy theories and hinders national cohesion at a critical moment.
Who Benefits? Left and Right in the Spotlight
Far from being an isolated act, the attack on Uribe Turbay carries political implications that could benefit various actors, both on the left and the right, depending on how the public narrative and investigations unfold.
Potential Beneficiaries on the Right
Strengthening of Centro Democrático: The attack could generate a wave of sympathy for Uribe and his party, Centro Democrático, led by former president Álvaro Uribe. The assault could galvanize the conservative base, portraying the party as a victim of violence and reinforcing its hardline stance against crime and insecurity. This could translate into increased electoral support in the 2026 elections.
Delegitimization of Petro’s Government: The right has accused Gustavo Petro’s government of fostering a climate of polarization and incendiary rhetoric that may have motivated the attack. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also attributed the attack to the “violent leftist rhetoric” of the government. This narrative could weaken Petro’s image, portraying him as incapable of ensuring the safety of his opponents.
Unification of the Opposition: The attack has united sectors of the right and center. This could consolidate a stronger opposition coalition for 2026, especially if the government fails to convincingly resolve the case.
Potential Beneficiaries on the Left
Diversion of Political Debate: The attack has temporarily paused the debate over Petro’s controversial popular consultation proposal to implement his labor reform, which was rejected by the Senate. The attack has shifted attention from criticism of Petro to a unanimous condemnation of violence, allowing the government to gain time and reposition itself in public opinion.
Neutralization of a Strong Critic: Uribe Turbay was one of Petro’s fiercest opponents, criticizing his “total peace” policy and security management. His temporary or permanent removal from the race could weaken the right-wing opposition, especially if the right fails to find a replacement with his charisma and visibility.
Opportunity for National Unity: Petro has sought to capitalize on the attack to promote a message of unity, condemning violence and calling for respect for life. If he manages to position himself as a conciliatory leader, he could mitigate criticism of his polarization and strengthen his image among moderate sectors.
Other Potential Beneficiaries
Illegal armed groups, such as FARC dissidents or drug trafficking clans, could benefit by sowing fear and destabilizing the electoral process, as occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The use of a minor as a hitman recalls tactics of drug cartels, suggesting the possible involvement of non-state actors interested in maintaining political chaos.
Impact on the Presidential Campaigns
The attack will have a significant impact on the 2026 presidential elections, with the first round scheduled for May 31 of the following year.
Increased Polarization: Although leaders across Colombia’s political spectrum have condemned the attack, mutual accusations between the left and right have intensified polarization. The narrative that Petro’s government fosters violence clashes with Petro’s accusations that the opposition is exploiting the attack for electoral purposes. This could radicalize campaigns, hindering political dialogue.
Candidate Security: The attack has brought the issue of candidate safety to the forefront of the debate. This could lead to increased security protocols but also to a perception of insecurity that may affect voter turnout.
Symbolism of Violence: The attack reinforces fears of a return to the era of political violence. This could discourage new leaders from entering the race due to fear of reprisals.
Reconfiguration of Candidacies: If Miguel Uribe does not recover, the Colombian right will need to find a new candidate, which could fragment its base or strengthen other right-wing pre-candidates. Conversely, the attack could inspire centrist candidates to position themselves as moderate alternatives amid polarization.
Implications for Colombian Democracy
The attack on Uribe Turbay poses serious challenges for the future of democracy in Colombia:
Erosion of Trust in Institutions: The inability to quickly clarify the attack and contradictions in official reports could deepen distrust in institutions, particularly the Attorney General’s Office and security forces. This is especially serious in a country with a history of impunity in cases of political violence.
Risk of Democratic Regression: The attack evokes a past of assassinations that weakened democracy. If effective measures are not taken to ensure safety and free debate, Colombia could face a regression toward a climate of fear and intimidation.
Call for Unity: Despite polarization, the attack has generated a consensus in condemning violence, with leaders like Álvaro Uribe, Gabriel Boric, and Giorgia Meloni calling for unity and justice. If this consensus translates into concrete actions, it could strengthen democratic resilience. However, divisive rhetoric remains an obstacle.
The attack on Miguel Uribe Turbay is not only a personal tragedy but a turning point for Colombia.
Contradictory information reflects the difficulty of clarifying an act of this magnitude in a polarized context. While the right could capitalize on the event to galvanize its base and delegitimize the government, the left could use it to deflect criticism and promote unity.
However, the most profound impact will be felt in the 2026 campaigns, where security and polarization will dominate the discourse, and in Colombian democracy, which faces the challenge of overcoming its violent past to ensure a pluralistic and safe future.
The investigation of this crime must be thorough and transparent to prevent it from becoming another chapter of impunity, and political leaders must moderate their rhetoric to protect the democratic pillars of the country.