Uribista Crossroads

Uribista Crossroads

Álvaro Uribe Vélez, one of the most important figures in Colombia’s recent history, faces a critical moment in 2025 that could define not only his legacy but also the country’s political direction. As former president (2002-2010), leader of the Democratic Center, and symbol of the Colombian right, Uribe has been both revered and criticized.

However, his current legal situation, marked by a trial for witness bribery and procedural fraud, and the recent attack on his protégé Miguel Uribe Turbay, places Uribe’s party at a crossroads.

Transcendence

Álvaro Uribe is at the center of a criminal case accusing him of witness tampering and procedural fraud, a case that began in 2018 and could culminate before October 8, 2025, when the statute of limitations expires.

The Prosecutor’s Office maintains that Uribe, through his former lawyer Diego Cadena, attempted to influence witnesses such as Juan Guillermo Monsalve to retract accusations linking him to paramilitarism.

The defense, for its part, argues that the evidence is weak, manipulated, or lacks a chain of custody, and the Attorney General’s Office has requested his acquittal, citing insufficient evidence.

This trial not only puts Uribe’s freedom at stake, but also his image as an untouchable leader.

Meanwhile, the June 7, 2025, attack on Miguel Uribe Turbay, a senator and presidential candidate for the Democratic Center, has shaken the country. The 39-year-old, seriously wounded by an underage hitman, is a symbol of Uribe’s support, and his attack revived fears of the political violence of the 1980s and 1990s. The investigation points to possible political motives, a network of hitmen, and flaws in the security system, with clashes between Gustavo Petro’s government and the opposition. This event, coupled with Uribe’s impeachment, intensifies polarization in an electoral context that is already heating up ahead of 2026.

What could happen?

The outcome of Uribe’s legal case has several possibilities. If he is acquitted, as the Attorney General’s Office requests, the former president could consolidate his narrative of political persecution, strengthening his influence in the Democratic Center and in the 2026 elections. His followers would see this as vindication, and Uribe’s supporters could capitalize on this victory to promote candidates like María Fernanda Cabal or Miguel Uribe himself, if he recovers. However, an acquittal would not dispel the doubts about his past, especially the accusations of ties to paramilitaries, which have dogged his career from Antioquia.

On the other hand, a conviction would be historic: Uribe would be the first former Colombian president sentenced for criminal offenses, facing between six and 12 years in prison. This could fracture the Democratic Center, which relies heavily on his charismatic leadership, and weaken his electoral base, especially among those over 45 who still see him as the savior who fought the FARC with his Democratic Security Policy. Furthermore, a conviction could fuel the victimization narrative, galvanizing his followers, but it could also alienate moderate sectors seeking a less polarizing right.

Regarding the attack on Miguel Uribe, investigations could reveal whether it was an isolated attack, motivated by money, or part of a broader political plan. If a political motive is confirmed, as some sectors suggest, pointing to armed groups or tensions with the Petro administration, Uribe supporters could use it to accuse the ruling party of inaction or complicity, escalating the confrontation. If, on the other hand, it is a common criminal act, the political impact would be less, but it would reinforce the perception of insecurity in the country.

Impact

The case of Álvaro Uribe and the assassination attempt against Miguel Uribe Turbay transcends the personal and reflects the state of Colombian democracy. With his Democratic Security Policy, Uribe transformed the country between 2002 and 2010, reducing kidnappings (from 2,282 to 213 per year) and homicides (from 29,000 to 16,000), and attracting foreign investment (from US$2 million to US$7 million annually). However, his legacy is tarnished by scandals such as the “false positives,” networks of informants that implicated civilians in the conflict, and accusations of links with paramilitaries, with more than 28 judicial proceedings against him that have not advanced.

The significance of these events lies in their potential to redefine the political landscape. A conviction could erode Uribe’s hegemony, opening space for new figures on the right or strengthening Petro’s left. But it could also exacerbate polarization, as Uribe remains a symbol of authority for millions, while others see him as the epitome of impunity.

The attack, for its part, revives the trauma of political violence, highlighting the murders of figures such as Luis Carlos Galán and Diana Turbay, the mother of Miguel, a victim of Pablo Escobar. This event jeopardizes the state’s ability to guarantee the safety of its leaders and threatens to delegitimize the 2026 electoral process.

Álvaro Uribe, both loved and hated, is a reflection of the contradictions in Colombia: a country that yearns for security, yet struggles with the wounds of its violent past. His trial and the assassination attempt on Miguel Uribe’s life are not just isolated events; they are symptoms of a deeply divided society, where politics is played out at extremes.

The resolution of these cases will determine whether Colombia can move toward reconciliation or remain trapped in a spiral of polarization and violence.